Wednesday, October 25, 2006

The Recent Polls

Today's ICM/Guardian poll gives the Conservatives a 10% lead (39% to 29%). It is Labour's lowest ICM/Guardian rating since 1987. The Liberal-Democrats are on 22%. The extra spending on the NHS appears to yield no political dividend for Labour; most voters seem to think that much of the money has been wasted (the Guardian editorial muses on their "ingratitude" and suggests endless "reform" may be part of the problem).
A poll in yesterday's Independent gave the Conservatives a 6% lead (38% to 32%). It gives the Liberal-Democrats an unusually low 14%.
Both polls are at odds with the Mori poll published a few days ago. The Mori poll may be a "rogue poll" or it may be the different results are due to different methodologies.
The Independent poll also showed that 72% think that the war in Iraq is unwinnable, and 62% think the UK should withdraw as soon as possible (An ICM poll in yesterday's Guardian reported similar results).
The "Iraq factor" is obviously taking its toll.

2 Comments:

Blogger skipper said...

Peter Riddell in The Times gives a good analyis of recent, somewhat volatile polls, I thought. It's not good news for Labour but Tories need to be much, much further ahead to consider the next election won.

5:01 pm  
Blogger politaholic said...

Thanks for that Skipper. I comment on the Riddell article in my most recent post. I also find UK Polling Report an extremely good source (useful for someone like myself: not a professional psephologist). Incidentally - a small point - I thought Riddell a little snotty about political blogs - but then he is a journalist and they are rather protective of their cabbage patch.

1:23 pm  

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