Wednesday, October 25, 2006

The Recent Polls

Today's ICM/Guardian poll gives the Conservatives a 10% lead (39% to 29%). It is Labour's lowest ICM/Guardian rating since 1987. The Liberal-Democrats are on 22%. The extra spending on the NHS appears to yield no political dividend for Labour; most voters seem to think that much of the money has been wasted (the Guardian editorial muses on their "ingratitude" and suggests endless "reform" may be part of the problem).
A poll in yesterday's Independent gave the Conservatives a 6% lead (38% to 32%). It gives the Liberal-Democrats an unusually low 14%.
Both polls are at odds with the Mori poll published a few days ago. The Mori poll may be a "rogue poll" or it may be the different results are due to different methodologies.
The Independent poll also showed that 72% think that the war in Iraq is unwinnable, and 62% think the UK should withdraw as soon as possible (An ICM poll in yesterday's Guardian reported similar results).
The "Iraq factor" is obviously taking its toll.


Blogger skipper said...

Peter Riddell in The Times gives a good analyis of recent, somewhat volatile polls, I thought. It's not good news for Labour but Tories need to be much, much further ahead to consider the next election won.

5:01 pm  
Blogger politaholic said...

Thanks for that Skipper. I comment on the Riddell article in my most recent post. I also find UK Polling Report an extremely good source (useful for someone like myself: not a professional psephologist). Incidentally - a small point - I thought Riddell a little snotty about political blogs - but then he is a journalist and they are rather protective of their cabbage patch.

1:23 pm  

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