A deal in "Northern Ireland"?
The Assembly elections in "Northern Ireland" have seen the further decline of the SDLP and the Ulster Unionist Party. The Democratic Unionist Party got 30% of first preference votes and 36 members of the Assembly; Sinn Fein 26.2% and 28; the Ulster Unionist Party 14.9% and 18; the Social Democratic and Labour Party 15.2% and 16; the Alliance Party 5.2% and 7; and 3 others were elected.
The Government has set a deadline of March 26 for forming an administration, otherwise Peter Hain (the orange-skinned Viceroy - sorry, Secretary of State for "Northern Ireland") threatens to dissolve the Assembly. Actually, the prospects of a deal between Sinn Fein and the SDLP - despite the rhetoric - looks pretty good, although whether they will manage it by March 26 is another matter (it will scarcely be the first time a deadline has been breached). Jeffrey Donaldson (a UUP defector to the DUP) is not short of anti-Republican rhetoric, but we can still hear him say that "we are ready for government" and "this can happen quickly" ("within weeks"); although he perversely blames Sinn Fein for lack of progress. It might seem incredible, but Sinn Fein and the DUP do quietly co-operate in town halls across the six counties. However, there are many DUP rejectionists who just cannot tolerate sharing power with Sinn Fein; and there is a lot of speculation that the DUP may fragment. The big issue in the election was water rates, set to rise spectacularly unless a financial package can be agreed, but the price of that is that the DUP agree to enter government (without which, as Gerry Adams has pointed out, they will not get a "brass farthing"). My money is on an agreeent, if not by March 26, certainly before Blair leaves office, allowing him something to put in the trophy cabinet labelled "legacy".
The Government has set a deadline of March 26 for forming an administration, otherwise Peter Hain (the orange-skinned Viceroy - sorry, Secretary of State for "Northern Ireland") threatens to dissolve the Assembly. Actually, the prospects of a deal between Sinn Fein and the SDLP - despite the rhetoric - looks pretty good, although whether they will manage it by March 26 is another matter (it will scarcely be the first time a deadline has been breached). Jeffrey Donaldson (a UUP defector to the DUP) is not short of anti-Republican rhetoric, but we can still hear him say that "we are ready for government" and "this can happen quickly" ("within weeks"); although he perversely blames Sinn Fein for lack of progress. It might seem incredible, but Sinn Fein and the DUP do quietly co-operate in town halls across the six counties. However, there are many DUP rejectionists who just cannot tolerate sharing power with Sinn Fein; and there is a lot of speculation that the DUP may fragment. The big issue in the election was water rates, set to rise spectacularly unless a financial package can be agreed, but the price of that is that the DUP agree to enter government (without which, as Gerry Adams has pointed out, they will not get a "brass farthing"). My money is on an agreeent, if not by March 26, certainly before Blair leaves office, allowing him something to put in the trophy cabinet labelled "legacy".
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